A Tobias Talk

UPDATE: Since I wrote this on Feb 25, the 76ers played 7 games up until the stoppage in play. In those 7 games, Tobias averaged 22 points per game while shooting 36% from 3 on 5 threes per game.

The Sixers have some problems. It’s pretty clear for a team with championship expectations, being the 6th seed a week before the all-star break is not good, simply put. That being said there has to be some kind of problem or problem. As fans, we usually want to pinpoint and fix the problems, usually using hindsight.

I think firing Brett Brown is usually the most popular fix. While that could come to fruition my guess it’s after the season. Then we look at players and fit. Al Horford to the bench and staggering his and Joel’s minutes to limit the time both of them are on court with Ben at the same time. Which could very well fix some problems? Maybe it fixes everything, I don’t know.

What I do know is TOBIAS HARRIS IS NOT THE PROBLEM.

Say it again, TOBIAS HARRIS IS NOT THE PROBLEM.

Tobias Harris despite has been one of the more consistent players on this team. He also is not “just ok” or an average player.

Here is how Harris stacks up as compared to an average SF according to realgm.com.

 

As you can see he is clearly above average in most categories in comparisons to an average small forward. All this being said, Tobias is naturally a power forward. Tobias is clearly not average or just Ok while playing outside his more natural position a lot of the time.

tobi2

Some quick numbers in regards to Harris’s season :

  • 19.2 points per game
  • 47% from the field
  • 36% from 3 (this can be adjusted (trimmed mean)  if you want assume Harris’ 6 game stretch that he shot 1-24 from 3 is an anomaly. We can take out that stretch and take out his best 6 game stretch where he shot 13-26 and it leaves you with 38%.)

Some more numbers:

  • Home: 19.1 PPG, 49% from the field, and 38% from 3
  • Away: 19.2 PPG, 45% from the field, and 34% from 3
  • Vs Top 10 record: 19.1 PPG, 49% from the field, and 42% from 3
  • Vs Top 10 Defense: 19.9 PPG, 44% from the field, and 41% from 3

3 POINT SHOOTING

A big knock on Tobias this season has been his 3 point percentage. 36% is an obvious drop off from his 43% he was shooting with the Clippers for the first half of last season, again Tobias trimmed mean is about 38%. To put in perspective what 43% from 3 is, Steph Curry is a career 43% 3 point shooter. While 43% may be an unrealistic goal, I think a good goal should be somewhere between 37-41% with the hope it hits more towards 40%. That being said, over the past 30 games Harris’ has shot 39% on 3.7 attempts per game. Prior to those 30 games, I have broken down into 6 game stretches, where Harris shot 40%, 4%, 58%, 29%, and 37% respectively.

Over the past 30 games, Tobias has seemed to settle into his 3 point shot. It would be nice to see him elevate his attempts to closer to 5 or 6 a game, but I can live with 40% on 4 3’s a game. 

tobias for 3

Tobias doesn’t jump off the page at you as a 170 mil dollar man. And he does have his deficiencies. But he is the third scorer that this team needs. In what was a very inconsistent start for Harris, he has seemed to really settle down over the past 30 games. Bringing his 3 pt percentage up after that awful cold streak and overall has been pretty consistent elsewhere. The Sixers are a better team with him on the court than off, as you can see the Sixers offensive rating is +3.3 difference with him on the court.

With Ben possibly being out for some time, Tobias is going to need to step up his scoring,  as will other players. Tobias was the lead man for the Clippers last season, and he definitely has shown the ability to score in bunches, hopefully, he can carry a large chunk of the scoring load down the stretch because the team is going to need it. 

 

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